000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 4N89W 9N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N103W TO 12N107W AND 
FROM 10N115W TO 10N120W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N112W AND 
8N127W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 8N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES 
WORK THEIR WAY AROUND AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. ONE ALONG 118W 
MOVING SE AND HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS MODEL. ANOTHER ONE NEAR 
132W AND A THIRD ALONG 140W S OF 20N..BOTH MOVING NE OVER THE 
RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE 
PAST 24 TO 36 HR AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THE RIDGE IS STILL 
PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT S OF 20N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 
12 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH NWLY 
SWELL TO 7 FT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO 
WEAKEN WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 128W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE THREE 
SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE MOVING SLOWLY E AND NE. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NE 
TRADES DIMINISHING TO 20 KT S OF 20N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 
FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT. GAP WINDS INCREASE 
SOME THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT OTHERWISE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE 
WINDS NEAR 10 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 WITH THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE..THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE S OF 30N. ONE 
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 110W WHILE ANOTHER TRIES TO CUTOFF NEAR 
25N143W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N131W 
WILL ANCHOR THE PACIFIC RIDGE. NE TRADES INCREASE SOME N OF 25N 
W OF 128W TO 20 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING 9 TO 10 FT W OF 120W N OF 
10N.  BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NWLY WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT. GAP 
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 
KT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT.  

$$
RRG