000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...2N78W 4N105W 8N120W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 13N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 10N117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 8N123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL...
TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO 125W. THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND REACH THE MEXICAN COAST IN 
48 HOURS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NEAR 117W IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE CONVECTION IN THE 
ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THIS TROUGH. 
OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE 
AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 127W IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL WITH MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS.

THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE 20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W 
AND SOUTH OF 5N WEST OF 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. 

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL 
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20 KT AND 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY. A SURGE 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT WITHIN 30 HRS 
(LATE SAT NIGHT).

$$
LL