000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 3N93W 8N120W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 8N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL...
TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO 125W. THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND REACH THE MEXICAN COAST IN 
48 HOURS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NEAR 118W IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 
THE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED 
BY THIS TROUGH. OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE 
AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL WITH MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS.

THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE 20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W 
AND SOUTH OF 5N WEST OF 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. 

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL 
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY ONLY ABOUT 20 KT AND 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. A 
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT WITHIN 36 
HRS (LATE SAT NIGHT) ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A 
MINIMAL GALE IS POSSIBLE. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL BE 
MONITORED FOR CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING IS NEEDED 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
LL