000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 3N93W 8N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 115W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE FLOW DIVERGES NEAR 32N138W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N126W AND PART OF 
THE FLOW IS BEING DEFLECTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA 
WHILE THE SECOND PART IS DIVING SE INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 114W BUT EXTENDING BETWEEN MEXICO 
AND 125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER HAWAII AND THIS IS PRODUCING BROKEN 
CIRRUS N OF 5N W OF 130W. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION IS 
ALSO STILL FOSTERING 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE TROPICS PRIMARILY 
W OF 124W BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE UPPER FLOW MERGES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE THE POLAR 
JET IS DIVING SE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET IS CLIMBING NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING OVER NW MEXICO WHERE THE FLOW BEGINS TO 
CONVERGE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE SW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 
UPPER FLOW ALSO COVERS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. LOW 
CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL 
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULFS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY ONLY ABOUT 20 KT AND 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. A 
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT WITHIN 42 
HRS (LATE SAT NIGHT) ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A 
MINIMAL GALE IS POSSIBLE. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL BE 
MONITORED FOR CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING IS NEEDED 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
BERG