000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 5N104W 8N121W 7N132W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N106W TO 12N108W AND FROM 9N115W TO 
8N118W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W BUT LATEST WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE BACK ALONG 140W. RIDGE BEING 
CONTAMINATED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY FROM 
CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 9N145W. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
MID PACIFIC PUSHING WWD AGAINST RIDGE WHILE VERY STRONG NWLY 
FLOW E OF 120W CROSSES NRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERE ALONG 135W N OF AREA RIDGES SE OVER THE 
REGION TO 15N118W. RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE TRADES TO 25 KT 
W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY 10 
TO 15 KT WITH NW SWELL 8 TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WINDS NWLY 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO 130W AS STRONG 
WESTERLIES WORK ON BOTH SIDES OF RIDGE. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES 
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN IT. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 PACIFIC RIDGE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY BUT 
NE TRADES CHANGE LITTLE. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST.  POSSIBLE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH GAPS. NW WINDS TO 15 KT 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES 
WORK THEIR WAY INTO RIDGE. ONE ALONG 126W AND A SECOND ONE ALONG 
142W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 CONSEQUENTLY THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WEAKENS FURTHER WITH NE TRADES DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS TO 20 KT 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. 

$$
RRG