000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 4N106W 9N120W 6N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N131W 7N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE WESTERN 
PORTION WITH AXIS ALONG 140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS 
THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 6N W OF 127W. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N98W 22N113W TO A BASE 
NEAR 8N114W...ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR NOTED N OF 24N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 97W. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST 
N OF AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ESE TO A POSITION 
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE HAS 
ALREADY WEAKENED S OF 22N ALONG 120W AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER 
WEAKEN SUPPORTING ONLY 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY TRADES BY SAT NIGHT 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W.

NW TO N 15 TO KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT FRI.

NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AROUND SUNRISE FRI AT 20 TO 30 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX FRI EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN SAT.

EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO SURGE AT 20 TO 
25 KT INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI THROUGH SAT.

$$
NELSON