000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 4N97W 2N110W 5N122W 4N140W.. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE WESTERN 
PORTION WITH AXIS ALONG 142W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS 
THE RIDGE TO ALONG 128W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE 
AREA ALONG 32N103W 23N116W TO A BASE NEAR 10N116W...ACCOMPANIED 
BY DRY UPPER AIR NOTED N OF 23N BETWEEN 122W AND 100W. A DEEP 
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N OF AREA IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ESE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
SAT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALREADY WEAKENED S OF 22N 
ALONG 120W AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 
KT EASTERLY TRADES BY SAT NIGHT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W.

BRISK 20 KT N WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AROUND SUNRISE FRI AT 20 TO 30 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX FRI EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN SAT.

EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO SURGE AT 20 TO 
25 KT INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI THROUGH SAT.

$$
NELSON