000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 4N97W 2N110W 5N122W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...W OF ABOUT 
110W...IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIVERGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND 
RE-CONVENE NEAR THE W COAST OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN...A SPRAWLING 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
A MERIDIONAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 139W. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER 
TROUGH IS LOCATED A LITTLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM ALONG 
119W WITH THE FLOW TO THE E SPREADING TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
MERGING WITH THE POLAR JET OVER TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS 
LIES N OF 7N W OF 130W AS WELL AS FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 104W-119W 
SURROUNDED BY POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY OVER AND SW OF NW 
MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES W OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
AREA.

FARTHER E...THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY SW TO WESTERLY DUE TO THE 
TROUGH ALONG 119W AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS 
BROKEN DOWN DUE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAIN THE RULE E OF 
102W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AND HIGH PRES IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ACCORDING TO A 1208 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATER TODAY BUT THEN INCREASE 
AGAIN TO 20-25 KT FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES BECOMES 
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HRS.

$$
BERG