000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG LINE FROM 5N77W 6N10W 7N126W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
10N112W 17N118W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N121W.


...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N OF AREA IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD RELAX 
THE EASTERLY TRADES S OF THIS RIDGE BEGINNING THU WITH THE 
PERSISTENT NW AND NE SWELL SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT OVER N OLD MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE THE BRISK N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH INTO THU. ADDITIONALLY SEAS OF AROUND 8 
FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 
108W SHOULD ALSO BEGIN SUBSIDING THU THROUGH SAT.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERLY 
WINDS SHOULD SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT 
SUPPORTING 20 TO 25 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GRADIENT SHOULD 
RELAX THU EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN FRI INTO SAT.

EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SHOULD SURGE AT 20 TO 25 KT 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI INTO SAT.

$$
NELSON