000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG LINE FROM 5N77W 6N10W 7N126W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
10N112W 17N118W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 11N121W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE UNUSUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE PERSISTING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SINCE LATE LAST WEEK SHOULD BEGIN 
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING ENE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MEANS 
THAT THE EQUALLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT COVERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF 110W SHOULD 
LIKEWISE WEAKEN...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WHICH HAVE BEEN BLOWING FOR DAYS ON END 
ACROSS THIS REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG 
TRADES SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AS HIGH AS 9 TO 13 FT FROM 8N TO 30N 
AND WEST OF ABOUT 114W...COMBINED WITH MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND 
NOW NE SWELL.  ALTHOUGH THE EXPANSE OF 20 KT WINDS SHOULD BE ON 
THE DECREASE THURSDAY...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY THAT WINDS 
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD 
RESULT IN A SHRINKING AREA OF 8 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER...AGAIN IN 
MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELLS.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO SHOULD KEEP A BRISK AND STEADY NW TO N WIND OF 20 TO 
OCCASIONALLY 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH AT 
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT FROM 20N TO 23N AND 
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 108W SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING FROM 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WINDS RELAX TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY SHOULD 
DRIVE A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE PAST THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING.  AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND 
THE FRONT...A NW TO N WIND OF 20 TO 25 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE WINDS 
COULD DECREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THURSDAY...THEY SUGGEST 
THAT THE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE BLOWING 20 TO 25 LATER FRIDAY 
MORNING INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT EXPECTED 
TO BE RATHER SHORT...SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO AS HIGH 
AS 5 TO 6 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRIDAY.

FINALLY...STRONG TRADES BLOWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN 
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY...AND WINDS OF 20 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 KT ARE 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THERE AND DOWNSTREAM FOR AS MUCH 150 NM.

$$
KIMBERLAIN