000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 8N127W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO AROUND 19N113W LIFTS OUT 
THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 140W BUILDING E. A 
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 35N140W.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN ACTIVE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NW. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOW NW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON 
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH IS DIGGING EWD OVER THE N PACIFIC...FLATTENING OUT THE 
MID/UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL LIFT OUT TONIGHT...LEAVING THE RIDGE 
TO BUILD E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH AS SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THU...KEEPING 
TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH ACTIVE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL 
WEAKEN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS EWD 
THROUGH THE N PACIFIC AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE LARGE 
NWLY SWELL OF UP TO 12 FT WITH PERIODS TO 13 SECONDS CONTINUE TO 
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

E OF 105W...HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FINALLY DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. 
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N SHIFTS RAPIDLY 
E...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
SHUTTING DOWN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. 
ALOFT UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES. AREA REMAINS VOID OF CONVECTION AS 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING.


$$
CHRISTENSEN