000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG LINE FROM 3N78W 5N100W 8N124W 4N140W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE ALONG 12N FROM 111W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO AROUND 19N113W LIFTS OUT 
AHEAD OF RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 140W BUILDING E. A 1034 MB SURFACE 
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 35N140W.  
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 123W ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
REMAIN ACTIVE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE 
NW. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NW WINDS TO AROUND 20 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING EWD OVER 
THE N PACIFIC...FLATTENING OUT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL 
LIFT OUT TONIGHT...LEAVING THE RIDGE TO BUILD E THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH AS 
SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THU...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH 
ACTIVE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS EWD THROUGH THE N PACIFIC AND WEAKENS THE 
RIDGE. MEANWHILE LARGE NWLY SWELL OF UP TO 12 FT WITH PERIODS TO 
13 SECONDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC.

E OF 105W...HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FINALLY DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. 
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE WED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N SHIFTS RAPIDLY 
E...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
SHUTTING DOWN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. 
ALOFT UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES. AREA REMAINS VOID OF CONVECTION AS 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING.


$$
CHRISTENSEN