000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG LINE FROM 3N78W 4N97W 4N113W 7N125W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N111W AND11N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS 
AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD REACH THEM MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT 
LAKES TUE. AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD 
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN 
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER 
AIR PUSHES IT ALONG. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK NW TO N WIND OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 
KT THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED...WITH WINDS 
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THU.  ALTHOUGH THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAIRLY 
NARROW...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS LIKELY NEAR AND SE OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WED. IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THU MORNING.  SEAS SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING 
NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 8 FT UNTIL LATER THU.

ELSEWHERE...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE TO E 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GUIDING THE NEXT TWO NORTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.  THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD 
PROVIDE FOR A ROBUST EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH 1034 MB IN 
THE VICINITY OF 35N136W THROUGH THU.  SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER A LARGE EXPANSE OF 
THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONG NE TO E FLOW BLOWING 
FOR DAYS NOW IS LEADING TO A NE TO E SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 
9 SECONDS W OF 130W...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 12 FT.  A NW TO 
N FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY N OF 25N E OF 120W HAVE 
NOW VEERED N TO NE LESS THAN 20 KT AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY 20 KT 
ARE LESS W OF 120W TO THE EQ.  VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE LAST WEEK OFFSHORE THE CONUS 
WEST COAST ARE STILL TRAVELING INTO THIS REGION...WITH WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH AND 11 TO 15 FT N OF 25 AND 
W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FINALLY...FAIRLY WEAK GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS STILL 
POSSIBLY TO 8 FT SUBSIDING.

$$
KIMBERLAIN