000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N105W 9N120W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 
9N119W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A LINE 32N135W 20N130W 
17N115W 24N105W 32N101W. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE TROUGH IS 
OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE TROUGH 
IS MOVING EAST HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE AREA WITHIN THE TROUGH IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE SOURCE 
OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN A 300 NM WIDE BAND. ONLY 
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO 
WITH SOME BROKEN MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN CLOSER TO 
THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO 15N WEST OF 105W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED. MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE AND ARE FROM 6N TO 20N WEST OF 120W.

WEAK GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION AND 
AREA EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 24 HOURS.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY.

$$
LL