000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N98W 4N111W 8N120W 5N135W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. 
AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 134W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SW INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS TO ROUGHLY 12N125W. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
IS PROVIDING A TAP OF DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH N 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO ERN TEXAS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE 
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH NEAR 119W ALONG THE ITCZ. THE CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION AS WELL. AT THE 
SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 37N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ROUGHLY W OF 120W 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THE STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LONG 
AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF THE AREA. THE TRADES WILL 
DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...RESPONDING TO 
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. 

MEANWHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 
NEAR 21N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT BEHIND THE 
FRONT...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 14 FT. THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE THROUGH TOMORROW AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. NWLY 
SWELL UP TO 10 FT WITH PERIODS TO 14S WILL PUSH DOWN THE BAJA 
COAST FROM LATE TUE THROUGH WED.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ALLOW FRESH 
TO STRONG NLY FLOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FURTHER E...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH AS THE TRADES OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN RELAX. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN