000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130Z UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 3N85W 5N97W 4N110W 7N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 
125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. 
AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 134W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SW INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS TO ROUGHLY 12N125W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
NEAR 119W ALONG THE ITCZ. THE CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION AS WELL. AT THE 
SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 37N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ROUGHLY W OF 120W 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THE STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LONG 
AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF THE AREA. THE TRADES WILL 
DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...RESPONDING TO 
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. 

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD THROUGH 25W E OF 128W. 
FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG 
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 14 FT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
THROUGH TOMORROW AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. NWLY SWELL UP TO 10 
FT WITH PERIODS TO 14S WILL PUSH DOWN THE BAJA COAST FROM LATE 
TUE THROUGH WED.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ALLOW FRESH 
TO STRONG NLY FLOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FURTHER E...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH AS THE TRADES OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN RELAX. MORNING HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED FRESH NLY FLOW S OF PANAMA. MODELS SHOW THIS DIMINISHING 
RAPIDLY THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN