000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N87W 4N100W 7N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 119W AND 
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CA 
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND EMERGE 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WED MORNING.  IN ITS WAKE...A STRONG 
AND SOUTHEAST-DRIFTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
29N138W SHOULD HELP STEER THE NEXT SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH INTO THE 
PACIFIC NW BY WED. A 1030-SOMETHING SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE AND 
SHOULD KEEP A MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E FETCH ACROSS THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS HAS ALREADY CAUSED SEAS TO BUILD TO 13 FT 
FROM 10N TO 20N AROUND 140W. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
GENERATED OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS SEVERAL DAYS AGO 
ARE ALREADY REACHING A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
HOWEVER ...WEST OF 130W...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS 
BEGINNING TO GENERATE LONG PERIOD NE TO E SWELL. AS THE SURFACE 
RIDGE FLATTENS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TRADES MAY SLIGHTLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE ABOVE AREA AND BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST. IN 
THE END ...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO 
COME S OF 20N AND W OF 110W THANKS TO THE LONGEVITY OF THIS 
TRADE WIND SURGE.

ELSEWHERE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG 30N114W 27N118W 27N129W 
SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MEXICO 
TONIGHT AND TUE.  A N TO NW FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE 
FRONT IS REINFORCING THE SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION... 
CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO APPROACH 15 FT NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 127W. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OF 27N AND WEST 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH WED.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO DRIVE A STEADY NW FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT 
IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST LATE TUES AND 
WEDS.

FINALLY...QUIKSCAT/ASCAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE GAP WINDS 
BLOWING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...MODELS 
INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS TRADES OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN STRENGTHEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEAST.  POCKETS 
OF 8 FT SEAS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE 
FURTHER BY TUE.

$$
KIMBERLAIN