000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 4 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 5N111W 7N119W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. 

AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT. 
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 120W CONTINUES TO DIG SWD WITH A 
POLAR JET ON IT'S W SIDE MOVING TO 30N. SUBTROPIC JET HAS 
WEAKENED THE PAST 24 HR BUT STILL CONTINUES FROM 20N130W TO 
LOWER BAJA AND ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
COLD FRONT WAS ALONG 30N MOVING SE 20 KT. A 1034 MB HIGH 
ANCHORED THE PACIFIC RIDGE BACK NEAR 36N150W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
OVER THE MARINE AREA TO 17N105W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE 
TRADES 20 TO 25 KT S OF 22N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY BUT 
INCREASE N OF THE FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT 
EXCEPT FOR PAPAGAYO WWD TO 100W WHERE SSMI SHOWS 15 TO 20 KT. 
WEAK GAP WINDS 15 KT THROUGH GULF OF PANAMA. 

LATER DAY 1 POLAR JET CONTINUES DIGGING SE OVER NRN BAJA/NW 
MEXICO. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N135W. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN BAJA COAST WITH NW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO PACIFIC RIDGE 
AND TRADES. GUSTY W AND NW WINDS THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BEHIND FRONT. GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EWD TO 105W WITH MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING W OF 120W. MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT 
AS STRONG NWLY FLOW ERODES RIDGE N OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N130W 15N105W LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
TO NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT 
BUT NW SWELL CONTINUES 9 TO 12 FT N OF 25N. GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT.  

$$
RRG