000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 4 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N115W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BRING A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA MON AND TUE. BROADLY DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT SE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG ALONG 126W IS ALLOWING SOME 
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ABOUT 400 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS. STRONG RIDGING 
WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA GENERATING PERSISTENT MODERATE NW FLOW AND 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TO THE BAJA AND 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. STRONG NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA 
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N E OF 120W. SEAS TO 14 FT W OF 135W GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH WED.

MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE 
WRN CARIBBEAN SEA...FUNNELING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
MUNDELL