000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 3 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 5N96W 6N115W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DIG INTO THE 
SOUTHWEST CONUS MON AND THEN SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A COLD 
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY MON AND THE REMAINDER 
OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD 
N OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST. THIS WILL DEVELOP PERSISTENT 
MODERATE NW FLOW...PRODUCING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IN NW PORTION  
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS TO THE BAJA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION...WHILE STRONG 
NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL 
DOMINATE THE AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 20N E OF 120W. SEAS NEARLY 15 FT 
ARE FORECAST W OF 135W NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY DECREASE 
THROUGH WED AS THE NW FETCH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC DIMINISHES.

MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FUNNELING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
MUNDELL