000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 3 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N100W 6N120W 4N131W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS 
TODAY WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MON AND SHOULD SLIDE 
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE.  AS THIS OCCURS 
...A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 
28N136W BY EARLY MON AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE.  MEANWHILE...IN THE WAKE OF 
THE WEST COAST TROUGH...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 
LOWER- TO UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE 
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 38N147W AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR 
WEST CONUS AND THE 1034MB RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SHOULD CREATE A PERSISTENT...BRISK 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHWESTERLY 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH TUE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIE DIRECTLY 
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT 
OVER THE FAR NORTH...WHILE STRONG NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC DOMINATE 
THE AREA E OF 120W.  HIGHEST SEAS OF NEARLY 15 FT ARE FORECAST 
TO LIE WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF 18N137W UNDER THE STRONG 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE 
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FETCH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TEMPORARILY 
DIMINISHES.

S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT 
NORTHWEST ONCE THE WESTERN COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING.  
WITH LITTLE TO NO FETCH OF WINDS AND ITS LANDLOCKED 
LOCATION...SEA HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY MODESTLY RISE BEFORE SUBSIDING 
LATER ON TUE.

ELSEWHERE...A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC GENERALLY 
FROM ABOUT 6N140W TO 15N110W BUT W OF 100W SHOULD OBSERVE E TO 
SE OF 15 TO 20 KT BUT SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT SHOULD CONTINUE 
TO PREVAIL IN SW SWELL. THE SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING FROM A 
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE 
SOUTHERN PACIFIC.

FINALLY...MODERATELY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS 
FORECAST TO SOUTH AND WEST...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THIS WEEK.  MODELS AND 
QUIKSCAT WINDS FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INDICATE FUNNELING 
OF WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 
SOUTH OF THE PANAMA CANAL.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS FORECAST THESE 
WINDS TO DECREASE SOME EARLY THIS WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGING OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BASIN SUGGESTS THAT THESE 
WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONG INTO MON AND TUE.

$$
KIMBERLAIN