000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 3 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 5N96W 6N115W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ARE SPILLING S OF 30N E OF 125W 
AS A POWERFUL POLAR JET DIVES SE INTO CA. A MUCH SLOWER 
SUBTROPIC JET CONTINUES FROM 25N140W SE TO 22N128W THEN ENE TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS 
STATIONARY JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 35N145W AND EXTENDS SE TO 
25N130W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC 
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM 30N140W TO NEAR 16N106W. THE 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE AND E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 30 KT S OF 20N W OF 135W. ISOLATED SHIP REPORTS IN THIS AREA 
SHOWS SEAS 11 TO 16 FT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE WATCH 
MODEL. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 
MODEL FOR 06Z. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND GULF OF PANAMA SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE POWERFUL POLAR JET OVER CA TIGHTENS THE MID 
LEVEL GRADIENT N OF 26N E OF 120W AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO 
THIS REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE NW OF THE AREA MOVES SE TO NEAR 
32N140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE AND TRADES. THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS NWD TO THE BAJA 
COAST THUS WINDS DECREASE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WEAK GRADIENT. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE POWERFUL POLAR JET DIVING SSE 
TO 30N114W SHARPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AS IT CONTINUES 
TO SLIDE SE TO NEAR 26N135W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE SHIFTS EWD WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TIGHTENING THE 
GRADIENT ALONG THE NRN BAJA COAST AND WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH NW SWELL INCREASING 9 TO 13 FT. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE S 
OF 22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO 
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE THROUGH PAPAGAYO. 

$$
RRG