000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 2 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 4N108W 2N130W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD FLAT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND PACIFIC COAST HAS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N132W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES JUST S 
OF THE TROUGH WITH A 70-80 KT MAX AND DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY EXTENDING 
UP TO 600 NM S/SE OF THE JET AXIS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FIRMLY 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE AREA S OF 30N 
SUN NIGHT. FARTHER S...UPPER FLOW IS NW/N W OF A TROUGH ALONG 120W. 
THERE IS WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH OVER A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 110W...PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 107W-113W.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA. A 
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SW TO 13N110W 
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 22N.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DROP BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCASIONALLY BE 20 KT THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022141 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 2 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 4N108W 2N130W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD FLAT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND PACIFIC COAST HAS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N132W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES JUST S 
OF THE TROUGH WITH A 70-80 KT MAX AND DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY EXTENDING 
UP TO 600 NM S/SE OF THE JET AXIS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FIRMLY 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE AREA S OF 30N 
SUN NIGHT. FARTHER S...UPPER FLOW IS NW/N W OF A TROUGH ALONG 120W. 
THERE IS WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH OVER A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 110W...PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 107W-113W.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA. A 
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SW TO 13N110W 
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 22N.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DROP BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCASIONALLY BE 20 KT THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
MUNDELL