000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021518 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 4N108W 2N130W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD BUT FLAT LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES JUST S OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N140W TO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 70-80 KT AND A CIRRUS CANOPY EXTENDING UP TO 600 NM S/SE OF THE JET AXIS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE AREA S OF 30N BY SUN EVENING AND SUN NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS NW TO NORTHERLY W OF A TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG 120W. THERE IS VERY WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH OVERLAYING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 110W...AND THIS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 107W-115W. FARTHER E...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA OVER AND ADJACENT TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING SW TO 13N110W AND THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 22N. THERE IS STILL A PATCH OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC FROM THE LAST COLD FRONT BUT OTHERWISE THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS. THE GALE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS EXPIRED AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 1238 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT. THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY BLOW TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. $$ BERG