000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 2 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 1N89W 6N110W 4N123W 7N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N110W OTHERWISE NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO STRONG JETS HIGH LITE THE REGION TONIGHT. ONE IS THE 
SUBTROPIC JET EMINATING FROM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THEN 
HEADING ENE TO ACROSS S CENTRAL BAJA AND OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 
THE OTHER..A POLAR JET WITH ABOUT TWICE THE VELOCITY IN THE NRN 
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES NEADING ESE TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
OVER THE AREA TO NEAR 17N105W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE AND E 
TRADES TO 25 KT S OF 23N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
ARE NWLY 20 KT N OF 27N ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY WITH NW SWELL 
TO 9 FT. GALE CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N 
WINDS TO 35 KT. OTHER GAP WINDS NEAR PAPAGAYO ARE NELY TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLOWLY E OF 130W AS TROUGHING 
SETS UP ALONG 24N E OF 132W. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER BACK TO THE 
NW NEAR 35N150W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL 
REMAIN NWLY 15 KT WITH NW SWELL 8 TO 11 FT.  TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 
DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BUT PAPAGAYO WINDS REMAIN NE TO E NEAR 
20 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER HOLDING FIRM BACK NEAR 
33N143W..THIS ALLOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO CONTINUE E OF 
132W ALONG 24N. THE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY SAG SWD AS COLDER AIR 
ALOFT IN THE NRN BRANCH WORKS IT'S WAY S OF 30N E OF 120W. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE CA COAST WITH 
WINDS INCREASING TO WLY 20 KT ALONG THE N BAJA COAST. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM..WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITH NE TRADES 20 
TO 25 KT S OF 22N W OF 124W. GAP WINDS ALSO DECREASE AS HIGH 
PRES TO THE N MOVES EWD. 

$$
RRG