000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 2 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N79W 2N98W 5N110W 5N130W 7N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A 50-70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET IS EVIDENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
20N. DIFFLUENCE E OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NE OF HAWAII NEAR 27N148W 
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DENSE CIRRUS N OF 16N W OF 123W. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST MOVING FLOW FROM NE MEXICO TO 16N112W IS
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SUBSIDING AIR E OF 115W ACROSS 
MEXICO. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR AN 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 122W S OF 10N. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH W OF 
140W IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT NE OF ITS AXIS AND TRADE WINDS 
REMAIN 25 KT IN AN AREA FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 135W.

HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REACH 40 KT NEXT 9 HOURS. THE PULSE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... 
AND WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SAT MORNING THEN BELOW 20 KT BY 
SAT EVENING. 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT COULD
INCREASE TO 25 KT WITHIN 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N. THIS TOO 
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL