000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 1 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 4N90W 6N100W 4N115W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A TIGHT GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N...WHICH IS 
ALLOWING 50-70 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO MOVE 
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE E OF A WEAKENING UPPER 
LOW NE OF HAWAII NEAR 27N148W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DENSE CIRRUS N 
OF 14N W OF 120W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST MOVING 
FLOW FROM NE MEXICO TO 16N112W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND 
SUBSIDING AIR E OF 115W ACROSS MEXICO. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
IS ZONAL WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 126W S OF 10N. A 
SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT A BIT ALONG 
ITS NORTHERN FRINGE...AND TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25-30 KT IN 
AN AREA FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 130W.

HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 30 KT LAND-BASED GAP WINDS OBSERVED. A 
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TEHUANTEPEC WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REACH 40 KT THIS EVENING. THE PULSE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AND WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SAT MORNING THEN BELOW 20 KT BY 
SAT EVENING. WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT 
COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT WITHIN 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N. THIS 
TOO SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL