000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 1 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 4N83W 7N97W 2N116W 8N138W 
8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVERGENCE OF MID LEVEL WINDS OCCURING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. 
THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ARE RACING IN FROM THE NW 
BRUSHING BY THE REGION N OF 25N E OF 130W. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE 
HAS PASSED THE AREA AND A MUCH WEAKER ONE IS ALONG 127W MOVING 
ESE. THE SRN BRANCH..A SUBTROPIC MID LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATES SE OF 
HAWAII AND HEADS ENE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FLOW IS LADEN WITH 
MID AND HI LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEADING TOWARD BAJA AND NW MEXICO 
TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A 1030 MB 
CENTER NEAR 33N130W DOMINATES THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
NE WINDS TO 25 KT S OF 25N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 9 FT. 
NW WINDS THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI 
IMAGERY. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 125W BUT WASHES OUT WITH 
LITTLE SUPPORT OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE 
SRN BRANCH WILL BE NEAR 20N130W MOVING ENE. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NE TRADES 
REMAINING BRISK. ELY WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT ARE 
EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 9 FT. SOME INCREASE IN 
GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO WITH SPEEDS TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST 24 HRS.  

FOR DAY 2 SOME LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W AS WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NRN BRANCH COME TO RESCUE OF THE 
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES TO 115W. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS JUST 
NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W. SWLY FLOW IN SRN BRANCH REMAINS 
INTACT ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTER SHIFTS NW THE OVERALL RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE OVER OUR 
REGION THUS NE TRADES REMAIN BRISK S OF 25N W OF 120W WITH 
SPEEDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME..NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 9 
FT. GAP WINDS DECREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
AND SEAS DIMINISH. PAPAGAYO WINDS ALSO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES TO 
THE N SHIFTS EWD. 

$$
RRG