000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N122W 9N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 120W AND 145W. BROAD 
CONVERGENT FLOW N OF 30N AS THE POLAR JET PLUNGES S INTO CALIFORNIA 
AND MERGES WITH SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ALSO WELL ESTABLISHED N OF 20N...EXTENDING NW-SE TO THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS ALL ACTIVE WEATHER
SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL NORTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. A TROUGH ALONG 134W IS MOVING W 15 KT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TEHUANTEPEC SSW TO 
3N102W IS IN PHASE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING E-W ALONG 15N/16N 
AND AS A REULT STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E 
OF 110W WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NEARBY 
WATERS. A SHORT-LIVED GALE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI EVENING AND LAST ABOUT 18-24 HOURS INTO SAT.

$$
MUNDELL