000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 6N110W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED NEAR 30N WHERE THE 
POLAR JET PLUNGING S THROUGH CALIFORNIA MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATES FROM 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HAWAII THEN ALONG 26N 
WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS W OF 120W. THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS 
WELL ESTABLISHED N OF 20N...EXTENDING NW-SE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER 
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PRODUCE A NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU. FARTHER S...AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH 
ALONG 132W IS MOVING W 15 KT. SOME CONVECTION IS FORMING W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TEHUANTEPEC SSW TO 
3N102W IS PHASE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS E-W ALONG 15N/16N 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W 
WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NEARBY WATERS. 
A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SEA FOG HAS HUNG AROUND THE 
WESTERN PARTS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A LEFTOVER COLD WAKE 
FROM THE LAST GAP WIND EVENT. ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI EVENING. 

$$
MUNDELL