000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 6N110W 10N130W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED NEAR 30N WHERE 
THE 150 KT POLAR JET IS PLUNGING S THROUGH OREGON AND CALIFORNIA 
AND MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH RUNS ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATES FROM THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW JUST NE OF HAWAII NEAR 
23N152W AND MOVES E ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 
26N WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS LYING N OF 15N W OF 122W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 33N 
WITH AN ARM EXTENDING SE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE VERY LITTLE AS THE ACTIVE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER MOVES INLAND 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRES 
WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THU. FARTHER S IN THE 
TROPICS...AN AMPLIFIED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED ALONG 128W 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORMING W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED 
CONVERGENCE.

E OF 110W...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF 70-80 KT WINDS LYING N OF 24N AND SUBSIDENCE 
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FARTHER S...A NEARLY STATIONARY 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SSW TO 
3N102W BUT IS COLLOCATED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS E-W 
ALONG 15N/16N. AS SUCH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE 
AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A PERSISTENT AREA OF 
LOW STRATUS AND SEA FOG HAS HUNG AROUND THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A LEFTOVER COLD WAKE FROM THE LAST 
GAP WIND EVENT. COLDEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 72F 
(22C) WHEREAS SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 84F (29C). 
ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC FRI AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS BY THAT 
EVENING. 

$$
BERG