000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 2N78W 9N123W 5N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 32N118W 23N108W. A BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR EXTENDS SW  
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS TURNING W ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO 
ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE LINE 32N100W 30N110W...THEN 
NARROWING TO ABOUT 150 NM WIDE ALONG 28N121W 31N140W AND 
CONTINUING W OF AREA INTO AN AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N116W WITH A SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 29N136W. A MOISTURE PLUME THAT 
ORIGINATED IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL PAC IS NOW FANNING OUT UNDER 
THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM 8N TO 27N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 145W. THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES E BUT NARROWS ACROSS OLD 
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SE CONUS...SPILLING E ACROSS 
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
20N89W...OVER FLORIDA AND THE ATLC N OF 26N W OF 67W. THE PLUME 
IS DEFINED ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 20N117W 
24N100W TO BEYOND 32N80W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 8N100W AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER 
CYCLONE IS NEAR 7N96W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N66W TO THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OFF THE COAST OF SW COLOMBIA OVER THE 
AREA S OF 7N E OF 82W. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY 
SE OF LINE 5N127W 25N80W AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION IN THE SAME 
AREA.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N133W 15N105W. NE OF 
THE RIDGE...NORTHERLY NW TO N WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 
KT TO THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WILL ALSO INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU. SW OF THE RIDGE...NE TO E TRADES IN 
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS MAX ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14N140W. A 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG 20N138W 10N145W THU NIGHT INTO 
FRI WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO TO 
ABOUT 16 FT NEAR THE AXIS. OTHERWISE N SWELLS ARE NOTED W OF 
110W WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 
120W REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N. 

GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20 KT SURGES EXPECTED TO 
RESUME THU AND FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS ABOUT 15 KT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 
KT SUNRISE FRI...AND INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE BY SUNSET FRI... 
THEN WEAKEN TO LESS THAN GALE SAT.  

NELSON