000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 6N100W 5N112W 8N129W 
7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE REGION EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MAINLY
DUE TO SW FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP TROPICS JOINING
UP WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW ROUGHLY FROM 
25N140W THROUGH 26N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITH WIND 
SPEEDS GENERALLY 50-60 KT ACCELERATING TO 110-130 KT OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE ENTRANCE OF A STRONG JET STREAK. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ARE 
WITHIN 420 NM S OF THE JET. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH 
MOVING SE 15-20 KT IS JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 33N143W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 28N125W AND REACHES TO 
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS 
ALONG 15N124W 11N126W. THE TROUGH MARKS A SECTION OF THE ITCZ 
THAT HAS PINCHED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W-128W. TRADE WINDS IN THE 
RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT FROM 8N-26N W OF 130W AND ALSO 
FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 120W-130W.

THE MID/UPPER FLOW THAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVER THE SE PORTION
OF THE REGION SE OF LINE 19N104W 13N116.5W 6N136W. A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING W IS AT THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THIS FLOW 
PATTERN NEAR 10N100W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WHICH IS PART OF A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW. WEATHER CONDITIONS HERE ARE
VERY DRY AS NOTED IN THE PRACTICALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES FOUND HERE.

GAP WINDS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2300 UTC THIS EVENING 
SHOWED THAT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO 
HAD DIMINISHED TO 15 KT. NEXT POSSIBLE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC MAY BEGIN IN ABOUT 72 HRS WITH WINDS OF 25-35 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE