000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 8N120W 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...

MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL 
WATERS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AS SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ORIGINATING FROM S OF HAWAII MEETS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20N140W TO 
31N106W WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 50-60 KT ACCELERATING TO 
110-130 KT OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE ENTRANCE OF A STRONG JET 
STREAK. A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET LIES S OF 
25N TO NEAR 15N AND IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND 
N/CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS 
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N122W AND REACHES TO NEAR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N AND W
OF 109W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS ALONG 15N123W
9N126W. THE TROUGH HAS PINCHED THE ITCZ NORTHWARD BETWEEN 
120W-128W. TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT FROM 
9N-26N W OF 125W.

E OF 110W...

A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL 
PACIFIC DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LYING N OF 
A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SW TO 
NEAR 1N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING W 15 KT MAY BE FORMING
ON THE TROUGH NEAR 10N98W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WHICH COVERS JUST THE ABOUT THE 
ENTIRE AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS HERE VERY DRY AS NOTED IN THE
PRACTICALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES FOUND HERE.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS...WITH CURRENT
SEAS TO 8 FT IN A SW SWELL EXTENDING FROM THE GULF W TO 81W 
N OF 5N EXPECTED TO ALSO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.


$$
AGUIRRE