000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 8N120W 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL 
WATERS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AS SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ORIGINATING FROM S OF HAWAII MEETS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20N140W TO 
31N106W WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 50-60 KT ACCELERATING TO 
110-130 KT OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE ENTRANCE OF A STRONG JET 
STREAK. A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET LIES S OF 
25N TO NEAR 15N AND IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND 
N/CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES 
JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N WITH AN OFFSHOOT EXTENDING SE OFF 
THE BAJA COAST. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD ITCZ PERTURBATION 
IN THE FORM OF A WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 125W AND 
FAIRLY STRONG 20-25 KT TRADES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE W 
OF THE AXIS PAST 140W.

E OF 110W...
A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL 
PACIFIC DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LYING N OF 
A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
4N105W. IN ADDITION...A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A RIDGE ALONG 19N...AND THIS IS 
PRODUCING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY AND SKIES ARE ALMOST 
CLOUDLESS AS FAR S AS 7N NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS.

GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO FREQUENTLY 
BLOW TO 20 KT FROM THE NE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1058 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE NEAR 20 KT AND EXTEND AS FAR S AS 
3N. THE EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO PULL BACK A BIT OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO 20 KT WITHIN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA ITSELF. SEAS ARE TO 8 FT RIGHT NOW IN THE OPEN WATERS 
FROM 3N-6N E OF 81W WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL...BUT 
THE WIND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE WINDS PULL BACK IN 
THE COMING DAYS.

$$
BERG