000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 6N100W 6N110W 7N120W 
6N130W 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN SW THROUGH 30N130W TO NEAR 27N135W.
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE 
DEAMPLIFIED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS 
OUT...LEAVING A CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE NE OF HAWAII. THE TAP OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO 
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. BY 
WED...PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF 
THE PACIFIC NW AND DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE COLD FRONT PROGRESS 
EWD INTO NRN BAJA TUE...AHEAD STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO 
THE EPAC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
NW BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 27N120W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS. CURRENTLY NE 20-25 KT TRADE 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 9N-21N W OF 133W AND ALSO FROM 12N-21N 
BETWEEN 120W-133W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN 
INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG 
HIGH THAT BUILDS E ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE 
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO WILL LEAD IN INCREASING NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 18 HRS. MEANWHILE...LARGE NLY 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. 

E OF 110W...STRONG N FLOW NOTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
SINCE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT...HOWEVER N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA...BUT 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS AS THE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PICK UP TONIGHT 
THROUGH WED ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE W. 
MODERATE SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST AGAINST THE NE AND E GAP FLOW...BUT IS DECAYING. AN OTHER 
ROUND OF SW SWELL...ALONG WITH MODERATE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO 
THE WATERS E OF 110W BY MIDWEEK. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE 
INHIBITED BY VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT UNDER DOMINANCE OF MID/UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

$$
AGUIRRE