000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 3N80W 6N85W 6N105W 10N123W 
7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N117W SW 
THROUGH 28N120W 26N124W TO 24N128W. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA 
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWED MODERATE NW-N FLOW BEHIND 
THE FRONT. TO THE S...FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT GENERALLY FROM 10N
TO ABOUT 23N W OF 130W. ALOFT...DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO NEAR 
27N138W. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE 
MORE DEAMPLIFIED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS 
OUT...LEAVING A CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE NE OF HAWAII. THE TAP OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO 
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. BY 
WED...PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF 
THE PACIFIC NW AND DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE COLD FRONT PROGRESS 
EWD INTO NRN BAJA TUE...AHEAD STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO 
THE EPAC. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS 
A RESULT...AS WILL NLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. MEANWHILE...
LARGE NLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S MAINLY W OF 110W THROUGH MID 
WEEK. 

E OF 110W...STRONG N FLOW NOTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
SINCE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT...HOWEVER N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA...BUT 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS AS THE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PICK UP TONIGHT 
THROUGH WED ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE W. 
MODERATE SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST AGAINST THE NE AND E GAP FLOW...BUT IS DECAYING. AN OTHER 
ROUND OF SW SWELL...ALONG WITH MODERATE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO 
THE WATERS E OF 110W BY MIDWEEK. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE 
INHIBITED BY VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT UNDER DOMINANCE OF MID/UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

$$
AGUIRRE