000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281617
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 4N105W 8N120W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISSIPATING SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 19N120W...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY. A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N125W TO 28N135W. SCATTEROMETER AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER 
S...FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 
130W. ALOFT...DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO NEAR 25N140W. THE 
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE 
DEAMPLIFIED THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS 
OUT...LEAVING A CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE NE OF HAWAII. THE TAP OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO 
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT. BY 
WED...PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF 
THE PACIFIC NW AND DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE COLD FRONT PROGRESS 
EWD INTO NRN BAJA TUE...AHEAD STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO 
THE EPAC. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS 
A RESULT...AS WILL NLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. 
MEANWHILE...LARGE NLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S MAINLY W OF 110W 
THROUGH MID WEEK. 

E OF 110W...MORNING SCATTEROMETER SHOWS CONTINUED 30 KT FLOW 
THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 
LARGE SWATH THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS FAR S AS 3N. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA AFTER 24 HOURS 
AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...ALLOWING WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA TO SUBSIDE AS 
WELL. WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PICK UP TONIGHT THROUGH 
WED ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE W. MODERATE 
SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
AGAINST THE NE AND E GAP FLOW...BUT IS DECAYING. AN OTHER ROUND 
OF SW SWELL...ALONG WITH MODERATE NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WATERS E OF 110W BY MIDWEEK. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE 
INHIBITED BY VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT UNDER DOMINANCE OF 
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN