000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 4N105W 8N120W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N126W 21N140W. 
A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 32N121W 26N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED N 
OF THIS SUBSIDENCE BAND...NEAR 31N130W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE 
TROUGH.  

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE SW PORTION EXTENDING 
NE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED 
NEAR 13N107W WITH A RIDGE N TO BEYOND 32N100W. A MOISTURE PLUME 
IS NOTED ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE COMBINED RIDGES...ROUGHLY 
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N140W 21N120W TO BEYOND 
32N104W. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 23N E OF 105W AND 
S OF 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 105W.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 32N113W 
20N120W. W OF THE FRONT W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
ARE SPREADING E TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A RIDGE EXTENDS 
ALONG 28N140W 22N120W AND IS BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THE FRONTAL 
REMNANTS TO MERGE WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 24N113W 1022 MB 
WHICH IS BLOCKING THE FRONT EASTWARD PROGRESS. NE TO E TRADES S 
OF THE RIDGE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS MAX ABOUT 14 FT 
NEAR 14N140W. OTHERWISE N AND NE SWELLS ARE NOTED W OF 110W WITH 
SOME SOUTHERLY SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR E OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 30 
KT THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20 TO 25 KT 
SURGES EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS 20 KT IN A DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
THEREAFTER. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 
SUNSET TODAY. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF WED. 

$$
NELSON