000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280412
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 8N92W 7N105W 9N120W 9N130W 
8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA 
THROUGH 32N125W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 28N131W AND TO 24N142W. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SE OF THE 
TROUGH. A RATHER PRONOUNCED JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION 
THROUGH 21N140W THEN NE THROUGH 22N130W TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE JET IS PUMPING AMPLE 
UPPER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. 

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA SW THROUGH 
28N118W 24N118W TO 17N126W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE 
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT TIED TO THE 
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN TO 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BAJA AND NW MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE 
MUDSLIDES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY 
MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ALSO AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE WINDS PERSIST BETWEEN THE 
LOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. TRADES 
WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 130W
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND FROM 7N-22N W OF 130W AFTERWARDS
TO TUESDAY EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT 
IS ALONG 13N124W 11N126W TO 7N127W...AND IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING 
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT.

E OF 115W...QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED N-NE 
WINDS MAXING OUT TO 30 KT. WILL ALLOW FOR GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE
IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS A SLIGHTER HIGHER SURGE OF N WINDS OVERNIGHT 
MAY TEMPORARILY BUMP WINDS BACK UP TO GALE FORCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL DUE 
TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN 
FRESH NLY THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MIXED SWELLS FROM BOTH THE NE AND SW MAY CREATE ROUGH AND 
CONFUSED SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE N AND NE GAP WINDS ARE 
ACTIVE. FURTHER NORTH...FRESH NLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE