000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 8N90W 10N126W 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W...THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FINALLY STARTING TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TOWARD THE ROCKIES. AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W AND WSW TO 29N140W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. A RATHER PRONOUNCED JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 21N140W THEN NE THROUGH 22N130W TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE JET IS PUMPING AMPLE UPPER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE REGION ANALYZED AS 996 MB AND MOVING SE 15 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 28N118W 24N121W TO 17N127W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT TIED TO THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA TO RECEIVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY MUDSLIDES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND ALSO AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE WINDS PERSIST BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. TRADES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 23N THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT IS ALONG 13N125W 10N126W 7N127W...AND IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. E OF 110W...HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING GALE FORCE. THE GALE EVENT IN THIS AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER DUE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RAPIDLY SHIFT E...AND SLY FLOW RETURNING N OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL DUE TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FRESH NLY THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. OF NOTE...WW3 MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE SW SWELL PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...CREATING VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE N AND NE GAP WINDS ARE ACTIVE. FURTHER NORTH...FRESH NLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE