000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271624
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 8N90W 10N126W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...THE VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FINALLY STARTING TO OPEN UP AND LIFT 
OUT TOWARD THE ROCKIES...AS A STRONG JET DIGS THROUGH THE NE 
PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED 992 MB SURFACE 
LOW NEAR 37N127W WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STALLING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 21N122W TO 13N133W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROMOTING 
COPIOUS MOISTURE PLUME INTO BAJA. AREA OBSERVATIONS FROM 
SOUTHERN BAJA AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO INDICATE GENERALLY 
MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN BAJA MAY 
EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY MUDSLIDES IN 
HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...THROUGH TODAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO NORTHERN BAJA...AS THE 
MID/UPPER MOISTURE SLIDES E OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...STRONG SURFACE WINDS PERSIST BETWEEN THE LOW 
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONGOING W OF THE FRONT...BUT 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. 
FURTHER S...TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING W. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS 
ALSO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 120W. QUIKSCAT DATA 
SHOW FRESH ELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT.

E OF 110W...HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETERY DATA SHOW WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING GALE FORCE. THE GALE 
EVENT IN THIS AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER DUE TO HIGH PRES 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RAPIDLY SHIFT E...AND SLY FLOW RETURNING 
N OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AS WELL DUE TO STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS 
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FRESH NLY THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. 
OF NOTE...WW3 MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE SW SWELL PUSHING 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...CREATING VERY ROUGH 
AND CONFUSED SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE N AND NE GAP WINDS 
ARE ACTIVE. FURTHER NORTH...FRESH NLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN