000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N105W 9N120W 8N140W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A VERY LARGE DEEP LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 35N132W REMAINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS A MASSIVE AREA N OF 16N W OF 118W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE 
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH DROVE A STRONG COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE 
TROPICS FRIDAY. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AND BECOME 
NEARLY STATIONARY. QUIKSCAT AND SHIP DATA INDICATE N TO NW FLOW 30 
TO 35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING WITH 
LARGE NWRLY SWELL 15 TO 24 FT SWEEPING INTO THE AREA TODAY...HIGHEST 
N OF 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT 
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE LARGE TROUGH HAS ALSO 
CREATED A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC RIDGE. AS 
A RESULT...WEAK TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

E OF 110W...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CONSEQUENTLY STRONG 
ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD FROM NE MEXICO BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT FAVORS A STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND 
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 6N105W THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER 
WRN CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA 
GENERALLY W OF 110W AND S OF MEXICO IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

$$
MUNDELL