000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260402
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N79W 4N90W 6N110W 9N123W 7N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 36N130W 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N140W. AS A RESULT...A DEEP-LAYERED 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N AND W OF 118W. A VIGOROUS 
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION IS FORCING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP STORM CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N130W AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N128W 
TO 24N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA FROM EARLIER 
INDICATED AN INCREASING NWLY FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING INCREASING SEAS AND LARGE 
NWRLY SWELL OF 10 TO 20 FT...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH. AS THE STORM 
CENTER MOVES SOUTH AND THEN EAST...EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AND 
SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA GENERALLY N 
OF 26N AND W OF 134W EARLY SATURDAY.  THE AREA SHOULD SHIFT WWD 
THROUGH THE DAY AND GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY 
EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE W 
COAST HAS CREATED A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN RIDGING OF THE 
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC.  AS A RESULT...WEAK TRADES CONTINUE TO 
PREVAIL S TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 123W. 

E OF 110W...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.  CONSEQUENTLY...A 
STRONG ELY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SWD FROM NE MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FAVORS A STRONG NLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD 
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM 
6N105W THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE A WEAK MID- TO 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER WRN CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY W OF 110W AND S 
OF MEXICO IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

$$
KIMBERLAIN