000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N100W 7N120W 7N130W 7N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 36N130W 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N140W. AS A RESULT...A DEEP-LAYERED 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N AND W OF 120W. A VIGOROUS 
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION IS FORCING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP STORM CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
37N130W AND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO 
27N140W. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE 
AN INCREASING NWRLY FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 
MODEL DATA SUGGESTING INCREASING SEAS AND LARGE SWELL OF 10 TO 
18 FT...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH.  GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 
TO 25 FT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NW PART OF THE AREA N OF 23N 
AND W OF 130W THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUN. AS THE STORM CENTER 
DRIFTS SOUTH AND THEN EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT THE TRADES 
TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN W OF 126W AND S TO 16N. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY 
WEAK TRADES CONTINUE S OF 16N TO THE ITCZ.

E OF 110W...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND 
FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.  CONSEQUENTLY...A STRONG ELY FLOW 
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MOST OF THE 
WEEKEND.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD FROM NE MEXICO BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT...A STRONG NLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.  ELSEWHERE...WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 
AN AXIS FROM 6N104W THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE A 
WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER WRN CENTRAL AMERICA. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY W OF 110W 
AND S OF MEXICO.

$$
TBK