000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N78W 5N110W 9N125W 8N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HOW 
MASSIVE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS. ANCHORED BY A 
DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 37N129W THE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES A HUGE AMOUNT OF 
REAL ESTATE...FROM ABOUT 21N TO 50N BETWEEN 115W AND 150W. THE MAIN 
LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH UNDER A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR... 
RESULTING IN A VERY UNUSUAL PUSH OF COLD AIR DEEP INTO THE TROPICS. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 03Z SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS AT 32N/33N BETWEEN 
130W AND 143W. A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 
6 HOURS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...LASTING
UNTIL SAT EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PENETRATE ALL THE WAY BELOW 
20N FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. LARGE SWELLS WILL 
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS AROUND 22-25 FT SAT MORNING 
IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...N OF 28N W OF 135W. THE NET RESULT OF 
THIS UNUSUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS WILL BE A NEAR 
TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 118W EXCEPT NEAR 
THE EQUATOR...S OF 5N. WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

FURTHER EAST THE PRIMARY FEATURE IS PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA...RESULTING IN GAP WINDS FLUCTUATING
ON A DIURNAL BASIS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO
LESSER EXTENT THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 30 KT
PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THEN PERIODICALLY DROP BELOW 20
KT...BUT 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD BE BE FAIRLY COMMON NEXT 48 HOURS IN ALL
LOCATIONS PRONE TO GAP WINDS DUE TO WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. 

$$
MUNDELL