000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250407
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N85W 9N12W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SW TO 30N127W TO 28N140W. THE STRONG 
NLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE PUSH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW 
INCREASING NW SURFACE FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT...MAINLY N OF 25N 
W OF 125W. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY WILL PUSH S OUT OF THE 
NORTHERN PACIFIC...BRINGING A SECOND STRONGER FRONT S OF 30N BY 
LATE FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE SWELL. WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE N OF 27N W OF 130W LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
N OF HAWAII. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WERE EVIDENT THIS 
MORNING...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS THE RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SAT BETWEEN 
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE 
ITCZ NEAR 123W.   

E OF 110W...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING 
STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP 
FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE 
WEEKEND. FRESH NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 KT BY LATE FRI...THE RESULT OF HIGH PRES 
BUILDING TO THE N BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. FURTHER N...FRESH NLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST SHIFTS E. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS 
THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NELY FLOW OFF THE 
CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIAN IS CROSSING THE ISTHMUS AND INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. THIS IS CONVERGING WITH SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
FLOW...GENERATING MODEST CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC 
COAST. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE 
AREA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN