000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N105W 10N120W 8N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM DEEP LEVEL CYCLONE
NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 31N140W. A COLD FRONT IS 
ANALYZED FROM 32N117W TO 26N120W TO 23N127W. A 1020 MB SURFACE 
HIGH IS STATIONARY E OF THE TROUGH 27N114W. METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS 
LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING S IN A BROAD ARC BEHIND 
THE FRONT. QUIKSCAT AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. 

FOR THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA...REINFORCING THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF
NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS FAR S AS 20N THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES N OF 28N W OF 120W FRI NIGHT AND 
SAT. IN ADDITION...ACCOMPANYING LARGE SWELLS WILL PUSH AS FAR S 
AS THE EQUATOR THROUGH MON. 

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIMITED 20 KT WINDS IN THE 
GULFS OF CALIFORNIA TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL TEND TO 
FLUCTUATE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE IN THESE AREAS WITH MINOR CHANGES
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. FRI INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING AN INCREASE 
IN TEHUANTEPEC WINDS AGAIN FRI. PERSISTENT STRONG ELY FLOW OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP PAPAGAYO WINDS ACTIVE INTO THIS WEEKEND. 
MODERATE NLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH 
OFF CENTRAL BAJA AND THE MEXICAN HIGHLANDS TO THE E. 

$$
MUNDELL