000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240428
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N87W 4N101W 8N130W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CLOSED UPPER CYCLONE 
OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...SW TO 31N140W. AN ASSOCIATED 
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED BENEATH THE UPPER CYCLONE...WITH 
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 30N122W THEN TO 25N129W. A STATIONARY 1023 
MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH OFF THE 
CENTRAL BAJA COAST NEAR 26N117W. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
LOW...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS 
ADVECTING S IN A BROAD ARC...INDICATIVE OF A TROUGH FROM 30N126W 
TO 27N130W. FURTHER S...QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A 
PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR FROM 
12N130W TO 6N133W...WITH FRESH TRADES TO THE N OF THE TROUGH. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W...WITH MODERATE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. FOR THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH 
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND REINFORCE THE LOW OFF CALIFORNIA. THE 
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACCORDINGLY...ALLOWING SURGE 
OF NLY WINDS BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AS FAR S AS 20N 
THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE IN SOME AREAS N OF 28N W 
OF 120W BY FRI. IN 
ADDITION...ACCOMPANYING LARGE SWELL WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS THE 
EQUATOR THROUGH MON. 

E OF 110W...EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL DIMINISH TEMPORARILY THU AS 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. HOWEVER...A NEW 
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY FRI BEHIND A SHORT WAVE 
MOVING THROUGH THE NE U.S. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
BUILD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS AGAIN BY FRI. PERSISTENT STRONG ELY FLOW OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP THE PAPAGAYO WINDS ACTIVE INTO THIS 
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN 
SURFACE HIGH OFF CENTRAL BAJA AND THE MEXICAN HIGHLANDS TO THE 
E. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN