000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N79W 7N110W 7N125W 10N134W 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 37N125W WITHIN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERING THE EPAC FROM 115-140W. AN ELONGATED...FLAT RIDGE...SE
OF THE UPPER TROF...NOSES INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC WITH THE MAIN
CENTER NEAR 17N96W.  IN BETWEEN...THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS
NE FROM 16N140W INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NWRN MEXICO...WITH 
MAX WINDS OF 100-110 KT EXTENDING FROM 27N123W TO THE SWRN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CLOSED CYCLONE IS SAGGING SLOWLY SE FROM 32N122W TO 26N131W 
...WITH A COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA.  ELSEWHERE...A WEAK 1020MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N118W...WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH W OF 
110W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF 
ALASKA DIVES INTO THE EPAC TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 48 
HRS...RESULTING IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  MEANWHILE...THE LEAD COLD FRONT OFFSHORE 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOSES ITS IDENTITY...WHILE A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE 
OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH 
PACIFIC SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING NWRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 130W FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE EPAC TROUGH 
NEAR 26N 136W IS FORECAST TO EDGE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
WHILE STREAKING NEWD WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET.  IN 
RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
TROUGH FORMING ALONG AN AXIS FROM 18N125W TO 12N130W GRADUALLY 
ORGANIZING INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N123W BY FRIDAY 
MORNING.  INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE 
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION ARE EXPECTED.


$$
KIMBERLAIN/SANDOVAL